Peak Oil and the Future of the Humanity

In this article, I examine some of the implications of humanity's dependence on Oil as its primary resource, and propose some counter intuitive theory of how to survive in a world where Oil would become increasingly precious.

If you search Google for "Peak Oil" - you get about 28 Million Hits. The Peak Oil is supposed to be the important event that will shape the Humanity’s future.

It is the job of news papers and journalists to report and analyze events. As a philosopher, I am not interested in the event as such. My interest is basically what is a possible future for all of us and investigate some of the implications of different courses of action. Therefore, I will use the Peak Oil event as a basis to examine certain questions related to how we should live.

For a good reference on Peak Oil, refer to the following websites. Both the websites have many links to lots of other interesting material.

Life After the Oil Crash
Hubbert Peak Theory

According to Wikipedia:
“The Hubbert Peak theory posits that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil field to the planet as a whole, the rate of oil production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. Early in the curve (pre-peak), production increases due to the addition of infrastructure. Late in the curve (post-peak), production declines due to resource depletion. “Peak Oil” as a proper noun, also known as Hubbert’s peak, refers to a singular event in history: the peak of the entire planet’s oil production. After Peak Oil, according to the Hubbert Peak Theory, the rate of oil production on Earth will enter a terminal decline.”

Even though there appears to be a general agreement about the Peak Oil theory, various experts have different dates for the Peak Oil. Most estimates predict that the Oil production will reach its peak somewhere between 2005-2012.

The indications that we are close to the Peak Oil are already here:

• The Oil Prices continue to rise in the recent years. In fact, the price of oil more than doubled in the last 6 years. This trend seems to continue, and does not seem to have anything to do with temporary and transient geo political environment.

• Many advanced countries are making a concerted effort to reduce their dependency on Oil. Sweden has a stated goal of reducing their oil dependency by more than 70% by 2020. In a recent address to the US Congress and Senate, President Bush spoke at length about US dependency on Middle Eastern oil and the urgent need to address this dependency.

• US and UK’s recent Iraq adventures – even though there was evidence to suggest that there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq – may have something to do with controlling Iraqi Oil reserves.

• Reputed journals like National Geographic carry articles about Oil Crisis regularly

• Many big oil companies are exploring for ‘expensive oil’ – companies like Chevron and Shell are drilling for oil at 20,000 feel below the sea level. Chevron is developing an oil field in the pacific ocean at a cost of 3.5 Billion Dollars – the estimated reserves of that oil field are half a billion barrels.

• There is an increased thrust across the globe on non-conventional energy sources.

What are the impacts of such an event? And what are the alternatives?

At a practical level – we only have one alternative. We have to quickly find an alternative to our dependency on oil. But, this is much simpler said than done. Our dependency on oil is far reaching – from petrol chemicals to transportation – we are completely dependent on oil. Even other non-conventional energy sources are directly or indirectly oil derivates.

In US, food has to travel on an average 2000 Miles from the place where it is produced to the mouth that finally consumes the food.

Agricultural production is heavily dependent on oil – fertilizers, power, heavy equipment like ground water pumping, large scale irrigation, farming equipment are all dependent on oil and energy.

Many life saving drugs – like anti-biotics etc., are oil derivates.

Each country and society has a responsibility to feed its population – and the population feeds on oil. This may lead to resource wars between countries.

At some time, Nature may step in – in ways that we cannot even imagine – and the population of the Earth may come down drastically.

At present, these are the only three alternatives that seem to be available – 1. We quickly find an alternative energy source that is a replacement to oil. 2. We fight with each other or 3. We don’t do anything and let Mother Nature take care of the situation. In reality, all three alternatives may work simultaneously.

However, I think the issue is much deeper than finding alternatives to ‘oil’.

Anthropologists and evolutionary biologists have discovered that any species that super specializes on one particular type of resource will become extinct eventually. The case of the Red Panda is an example. The Red Pandas eat a very specific leaf, and when that resource becomes unavailable – the species will also become extinct. On the other hand, insects like cockroaches survived for the longest time because they are dependent on resources that are always guaranteed to be available – in the case of a cockroach, the resource is garbage created by other living creatures.

Man is now a super spiciest – not just in terms of his knowledge and special abilities, but from the nature’s point of view, Man is completely dependent on oil. So, does it mean humanity is reaching its end?

However, man is neither a cockroach nor a red panda. We are equipped with an awareness of our situation and the ability to do something about it. Nature worked really hard for billions of years perfecting its own techniques of invention and finally produced its best product – an intelligent, sentient human being who could acquire the capacity to understand the process of creation and the cosmos. So, instead of Mother Nature being our enemy, it may actually aid us in our survival and even development. But, for this to occur, we have to act as one species, not as people from different cultures, nations, geographies, religions and races. Are we capable of such a harmonious, unified action?

I believe so.

To be continued....